Publication Author: SOTEN

Published On: Jan 07, 2022

Publication Links: https://www.iosrjournals.org/iosr-jce/papers/Vol23-issue6/Ser-3/A2306030109.pdf

Urban Arterial Mid-Block Traffic Forecasting: Case Study of Kathmandu Ring Road

Roshan Devkota1 , Siddhant Sitoula2 , Sumit Karki3, Padma Bahadur Shahi4

1,2 &3 Transport Researcher, SOTEN, Nepal, 4Visiting professor, Institute of Engineering, Pulchowk, Nepal

Abstract:

Lack of proper transportation management system creates numerous traffic problems such as traffic congestion and accidents. Traffic management, especially in urban areas, requires the application of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) to counter these problems. Predicting short-term traffic flow using different time series forecasting models is an essential aspect of ITS. The frequently used forecasting models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, etc., require an extensive collection of traffic data, which may not be feasible for predicting the shortterm traffic volume. On the other hand, the multiplicative decomposition forecasting model offers a viable solution to the problem as it requires a minimal set of data. In this study, the efficacy of the multiplicative decomposition forecasting method in two sections of the Kathmandu ring road has been validated. The three consecutive day traffic data was collected through videographic survey during the rush hours. The first two days' data were used to predict the third-day data, which was validated with the observed field data. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was found to be 10.55% and 10.59% for the study sections, which were between the permissible limit of 9% to 16% required for ITS applications. The results look promising and might become a valuable tool for short-term traffic condition forecasting in ITS.

Keywords: ITS application, Short-term traffic forecasting, Multiplicative decomposition model 

Author’s Profile

Full Name: Roshan Devkota

Address: Chandannath-10, Jumla, Karnali, Nepal

Research Interests: Transportation Engineering, Road safety, Intelligent Transport System, Transportation Planning

Contact: (+977) 9848382406

E-mail: roshandevkota@soten.org.np ,    rd10.devkota@gmail.com